In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ10kṀ14k

2030

0.8%

2024

2025

11%

2026

2027

2028

2029

61%

2030+ or never

This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter". The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count.

The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi.

This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.

Market context

AI Safety

AI Alignment

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bought Ṁ40 NO

Can resolve for 2025 as well

@DavidHiggs confirmed, but AFAIK I can't resolve just one option right? At least I still don't see how in the UI

@nsokolsky oh I’m not sure I’ve never made one of these markets. I’ve seen other markets with some options resolved, but maybe those were a different type?