Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, in any month of 2026, Ukraine’s net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than zero square kilometres according to two or more of the following sources:
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Clarifications
This market concerns de facto territorial changes. Territory gained or lost by diplomatic means (i.e. in a peace treaty) will be counted in this market, as well as territory gained or lost militarily.
For the purpose of this market, Ukraine’s net territorial gain can be understood as equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to Russia’s net territorial loss in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000Black Bird Group reports that Ukraine had a net gain of 37 square kilometres in February. If just one of ISW, Reuters, AFP and AP also independently determines that Ukraine had a net territorial gain in February, this market will resolve YES.
None of the resolution sources have reported a net territorial gain for Ukraine in January.
Ukraine's net territorial loss was:
560 sq km according to Creamy caprice
526 sq km according to LostArmour
470 sq km according to Divgen
389 sq km according to Black Bird Group
265 sq km* according to ISW (1 Jan - 27 Jan)
11 months to go...