MANIFOLD
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 5k)?
12
Ṁ275Ṁ2.1k
Mar 20
5,426 deaths
expected
0.2%
Under 1,000
0.1%
1,000 - 1,499
0.3%
1,500 - 1,999
0.3%
2,000 - 2,499
0.3%
2,500 - 2,999
0.5%
3,000 - 3,499
0.3%
3,500 - 3,999
0.2%
4,000 - 4,499
0.5%
4,500 - 5,000
97%
Over 5,000

Resolution criteria

Resolves by the same standards as this market but with different buckets.

Market context
Middle East
Iran
Death
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

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How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 100k)?
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30,809
Sort by:

Current count appears to be 4,902.

bought Ṁ50 YES

The Sunday Times reports 16.5k

https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/iran-young-protesters-news-nsdztp5t2

bought Ṁ10 YES

It's over 25000 already.

Resolve please

@Alva This would not yet resolve as over 5,000 per the conditions of the original market as it currently stands. Condition a) does not fulfill 5,000+, so per condition b), the current count is 2,615.

bought Ṁ50 NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iranian-mp-warns-greater-unrest-urging-government-address-grievances-2026-01-13/

People are also trading

Will Iran kill atleast 5 more American soldiers by end March
-4% 1d45% chance
Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?
-8% 1d39% chance
Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?
11% chance
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 100k)?
62,450
How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?
14,339
Death toll of Iranian regime killings Jan. 8 and 9, 2026?
14,964
How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?
36,091
Will the current wave of Iranian protests be suppressed by the end of 2026?
80% chance
When will the Iranian protests end?
7/17/26
How many confirmed deaths will be attributed to the 2026 Iran war as of March 31, 2026?
30,809
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