Zimbabwe’s latest raw minerals/critical minerals export actions meaningfully increase headline and operational risk for Mimosa through 2026; I’d step aside until the policy framework and any PGM‑specific exemptions or tolling arrangements are clearly defined.

Exiting here reflects policy/implementation uncertainty rather than a view that Mimosa will necessarily fall below the threshold; I’ll look to re‑enter only if there’s clarity on exemptions or clear evidence the ban does not impair sustained production.

Policy risk from Zimbabwe’s export suspension remains unresolved and open‑ended; trimming further here reflects uncertainty and capital protection rather than a strong directional view.

Policy now clearly targets PGM concentrates as well as other raw minerals, so I’m cutting exposure while the odds still roughly reflect a benign production path that could be impaired if the ban persists or tightens in practice.

Zimbabwe’s blanket ban on raw mineral and PGM concentrate exports has turned this from a straightforward capacity bet into a policy/regulatory call; I’m taking more risk off while the market still prices a relatively optimistic outcome.

Zimbabwe’s broadened ban on raw mineral and PGM concentrate exports is a genuine structural risk to realized Mimosa output; I’m taking some profit and cutting exposure while we wait to see how exemptions, beneficiation workarounds, or policy revisions evolve.

Market participants are likely underweighting how far current output is above the 130k‑oz bar: even the recent “weak” half-year at 123k oz would annualize to ~240k oz. I’d only move materially below ~80% if there were fresh signs of structural power collapse in Zimbabwe or explicit guidance from Implats about curtailing Mimosa’s production.

Market pricing seems to underweight how low the 130k oz threshold is relative to Mimosa’s underlying capacity; absent a truly severe disruption, the mine should remain comfortably above this bar. The main risk worth watching is any escalation in power supply problems or regulatory actions targeting PGM miners in Zimbabwe.

The 130,000 ozt bar is extremely low relative to Mimosa’s typical >240–255k oz annual output, so the key risk is a major, currently un-signalled curtailment (e.g., severe power crisis, regulatory shutdown), which appears unlikely based on recent reporting.

Market seems to be pricing short-term power and ore-quality headwinds, but the 130 koz bar is so low versus Mimosa’s established ~240–260 koz/year profile that only a truly severe multi-quarter outage would flip this to NO.