When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each? | Manifold

When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?

2

Ṁ250Ṁ189

2036

April 10, 2030

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

12%

Before Oct 2026

19%

Before Apr 2027

26%

Before Oct 2027

36%

Before Apr 2028

44%

Before Oct 2028

50%

Before Dec 2029

50%

Before Dec 2030

61%

Before Dec 2031

79%

Before Dec 2033

89%

Before Dec 2035

Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them. Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself. Independently verified.

Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions

Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months). Also submitted to Metaculus.

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